Abstract
Background: Statin therapy lowers the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) among people with HIV (PWH). Residual risk pathways contributing to excess MACE beyond low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) are not well understood. Our objective was to evaluate the association of statin responsive and other inflammatory and metabolic pathways to MACE in the Randomized Trial to Prevent Vascular Events in HIV (REPRIEVE).
Methods: Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the relationship between MACE and proteomic measurements at study entry and year 2 adjusting for time-updated statin use and baseline 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score. We built a machine learning (ML) model to predict MACE using baseline proteins values with significant associations.
Results: In 765 individuals (age: 50.8±5.9 years, 82% males) among 7 proteins changing with statin vs. placebo, angiopoietin-related protein 3 (ANGPTL3) related most strongly to MACE (aHR: 2.31 per 2-fold higher levels; 95%CI: 1.11-4.80; p=0.03), such that lower levels of ANGPTL3 achieved with statin therapy were associated with lower MACE risk. Among 248 proteins not changing in response to statin therapy, 26 were associated with MACE at FDR<0.05. These proteins represented predominantly humoral immune response, leukocyte chemotaxis, and cytokine pathways. Our proteomic ML model achieved a 10-fold cross-validated c-index of 0.74±0.11 to predict MACE, improving on models using traditional risk prediction scores only (c-index: 0.61±0.18).
Conclusions: ANGPTL3, as well as key inflammatory pathways may contribute to residual risk of MACE among PWH, beyond LDL-C.